Kazakhstan Country Security Risk and Market Entry Report

Overall Risk Rating: Moderate

Intended use: Travel risk management, operational planning, duty of care

Executive Summary

Kazakhstan is a politically controlled state with limited tolerance for dissent and a track record of rapidly escalating unrest, demonstrated most notably during the January 2022 nationwide disturbances. The operating environment is generally stable in major urban centres, however risk is elevated by a combination of constrained civic space, corruption exposure, limited emergency response capability outside cities, and seasonal transport disruption driven by severe winter weather.

For corporate travellers and operational teams, the most consistent risks are crime in major cities, movement and transport safety, and administrative/legal unpredictability. A general terrorism threat remains present, primarily from lone actors, with potential targeting of soft locations such as transport hubs and crowded public areas. While Kazakhstan is not currently involved in an active armed conflict, regional geopolitical dynamics (Russia/Ukraine and China’s western periphery) contribute to strategic uncertainty.

Bottom line: Kazakhstan is viable for business travel and market activity with appropriate controls, particularly around transport discipline, personal security in urban centres, and compliance governance.

Risk Summary

1) Political – Moderate

Kazakhstan operates an authoritarian, hybrid regime system. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has led since 2019 following the resignation of Nursultan Nazarbayev, who governed from independence in 1991. Political competition remains constrained, and public demonstrations require authorisation, with unauthorised activity historically met with enforcement action.

Government reshuffles and administrative changes, including the appointment of a new prime minister in February 2024, signal responsiveness to economic pressures but also reinforce that decision-making is centralised and policy implementation can be uneven.

Business impact: policy volatility, heightened sensitivity to political activity, limited tolerance for protest, and reduced transparency.

2) Armed Conflict – Low

Kazakhstan is not currently engaged in international armed conflict. Concerns persist around regional instability and long-term strategic risk linked to Russia’s posture in the region, but Kazakhstan remains closely tied to Russia economically and militarily, reducing the likelihood of direct confrontation in the near term.

Business impact: low direct conflict exposure, but geopolitical spillover can influence sanctions, supply chains, and investor sentiment.

3) Terrorism – Moderate

A general terrorism threat exists nationwide, with heightened concern in southern and western areas. The principal threat is from lone actors inspired by extremist organisations. Potential targets include embassies, transport hubs, crowded public areas, and places of worship. Wider regional instability in Central Asia and China’s western periphery may contribute to long-term risk, though there is no immediate indication of a sustained escalation.

Business impact: soft-target exposure (events, hotels, airports) and the need for heightened vigilance during periods of unrest.

4) Crime – Moderate

Crime risk is concentrated in major cities and is typically opportunistic. Petty theft, pickpocketing and bag snatching are common, especially in crowded areas and markets. Foreigners can be targeted in nightlife areas and by unlicensed taxis. There have been reports of airport “fake chauffeurs” meeting passengers and subsequently robbing them.

Police corruption and limited assistance are persistent concerns. While kidnapping risk exists, incidents rarely affect foreign nationals and are more commonly financially motivated.

Business impact: personal safety risk for travellers, reputational risk, and reliance on controlled transport and accommodation procedures.

5) Civil Unrest – Moderate

Public protests are not frequent, but the potential for sudden escalation remains. The January 2022 unrest, initially triggered by fuel price increases, resulted in violent clashes, looting, fatalities, and mass arrests. While conditions have stabilised, underlying grievances and political sensitivity persist, and authorities maintain strict control over assembly.

Business impact: disruption risk, movement restrictions, and heightened scrutiny of gatherings.

6) Maritime and Piracy – Negligible

Kazakhstan has a limited maritime footprint via the Caspian Sea. There are no notable maritime security incidents affecting routine commercial activity. Strategic risk in the Caspian relates to broader regional militarisation rather than piracy.

Business impact: minimal for most corporate operations.

7) Health – Moderate

Medical capability is below Western standards, particularly outside major cities. Shortages of drugs and equipment are possible and cash payment may be required. Ambulance services can be unreliable outside urban centres. Medical evacuation may be required in serious cases. Travellers should take precautions regarding food and water hygiene and consider relevant vaccinations for travel beyond major cities.

Business impact: duty of care exposure and the need for robust insurance and medevac planning.

8) Environmental – Low (with seasonal spikes)

Kazakhstan faces seasonal hazards including severe winter weather (snowstorms, blizzards, icy conditions), occasional flooding, and wildfire risk. Kazakhstan also experiences air pollution issues in some urban centres. Earthquake risk exists, particularly around Almaty, though major events are infrequent and response capability is limited.

Business impact: weather-driven transport disruption and operational delays.

9) Transportation – Moderate

Kazakhstan’s size and infrastructure variability create movement risk. Roads can be poorly maintained, hazards may be unmarked, and driving standards are inconsistent. Winter conditions significantly elevate accident risk. Rail travel is generally safe but robberies can occur on overnight services. Public transport can be crowded with pickpocket risk. App-based ride-hailing operates in major centres and is preferred over informal taxis.

Certain areas are restricted without prior permission, including Gvardeyskiy (Almaty region), Baikonur, and districts of Karmakchi and Kazalinsk (Kyzylorda region).

Business impact: accident exposure, disruption risk, and the need for controlled transport.

KAZAKHSTAN – MARKET ENTRY REPORT (SECURITY AND BUSINESS RISK)

Purpose: Support entry decision-making and define operating conditions, controls, and opportunities

Scope: Security, regulatory and integrity risk, geopolitical exposure, and operational resilience

1) Security Situation Overview

What are conditions like on the ground?

Conditions in Astana and Almaty are generally stable for business operations, with most risks being manageable through standard corporate travel controls. The security environment is shaped by tight state control, limited tolerance for dissent, and episodic unrest potential.

What are the risks to staff and potential assets?

Primary risks are:

• opportunistic crime (especially at night and around nightlife)

• civil unrest disruption (low frequency, high impact)

• transport accidents and weather disruption

• inconsistent emergency response outside major cities

What factors could impact business continuity?

Winter disruption, sudden unrest, and administrative constraints can rapidly affect movement and site access.

2) History and Future Risk of Expropriation / Nationalisation

History (contextual):

Kazakhstan has pursued foreign investment, but the state retains significant leverage through licensing, inspections, taxation, and regulatory enforcement. In environments with low transparency and centralised decision-making, commercial disputes can become politicised.

Future risk outlook: Moderate (sector dependent)

Risk increases for:

• strategic sectors (resources, infrastructure, telecoms, sensitive data)

• projects requiring extensive permits or land access

• partnerships involving politically exposed actors

What should the business do about it?

• structure entry in phases (avoid over-commitment early)

• use strong contractual protections and dispute planning

• maintain high documentation standards for compliance and performance

• consider political risk insurance where relevant

3) Foreign State-Backed Competitors and Geopolitical Risk

What competitors exist in the region?

State linked or state favoured firms (domestic and foreign) can hold advantage in procurement, licensing, and access to decision-makers, particularly in strategic sectors.

Are certain countries’ companies favoured?

In practice, firms with strong geopolitical alignment, established relationships, and state linked financing may face fewer obstacles. Russia and China remain key external actors.

What does this mean for entry?

• competitive pressure may be shaped by politics, not only price/quality

• regulatory outcomes may depend on relationships and narrative positioning

• reputational risk exists if operations are perceived as aligned with a bloc

4) Local Crime

What is the risk to staff?

Moderate in major cities, driven by opportunistic theft, nightlife targeting, and taxi related scams. Foreign travellers may be assumed to carry valuables.

Controls required:

• corporate transport only (licensed / app-based / pre-booked)

• no street taxis, avoid walking alone at night

• heightened vigilance in markets, public transport, and nightlife areas

• airport arrival protocol to prevent “fake chauffeur” scams

5) Rule of Law

Can governing bodies be trusted to deal fairly?

Enforcement can be inconsistent and influenced by local dynamics. Corruption exposure can affect policing and administrative processes. Legal outcomes may not be predictable in high-value disputes.

What does this mean for the business?

• reduce reliance on informal arrangements

• maintain strong contracts, audit trails, and escalation routes

• plan for dispute resolution pathways early (including arbitration strategy)

6) Transparency of Licence Awards and Renewals

How transparent are licensing processes?

Transparency varies by sector and location. Licensing and inspections can create pressure points for delays, additional requirements, or solicitation.

Key risk: administrative leverageLicences and renewals can be used to influence business behaviour, especially where local discretion is high.

Mitigations:

• map all permits and approvals before entry

• build realistic timelines and contingency buffers

• centralise government touchpoints to trained personnel only

• enforce “no facilitation payments” and document all interactions

7) State Capture by Local Elites

Is state capture a concern?

Elite influence can shape access to contracts, approvals, and enforcement outcomes, particularly in sectors linked to infrastructure, energy, extractives, or land use.

What should the business do?

• avoid dependency on a single politically connected sponsor

• conduct enhanced due diligence on partners and beneficial owners

• include exit clauses and performance-based milestones

• monitor political turnover that could weaken protection networks

8) Risks to Supply Chains

What factors could impact supply chains?

• winter weather disrupting roads and aviation

• geographic scale and limited infrastructure in remote areas

• customs friction and administrative delays

• reliance on single vendors or routes

Mitigations:

• dual sourcing where feasible

• winterised logistics planning and buffer stock

• vendor performance KPIs and continuity clauses

• route risk assessments for regional movement

9) Compliance Risk

What is the bribery and corruption risk?

Moderate to high depending on operational footprint and sector. Key exposure points include inspections, policing, licensing, procurement, and logistics.

How to manage it:

• third-party due diligence and ongoing monitoring

• clear policies for gifts, hospitality, and facilitation payment refusal

• training for staff on solicitation scenarios

• audit-ready payment controls and segregation of duties

10) Sanctions Risk

What is the sanctions exposure?

Risk is variable and depends on counterparties, logistics routes, and links to Russia related entities. Sanctions compliance becomes operational through who the organisation contracts, pays, and transports with.

Controls:

• sanctions screening of counterparties and beneficial owners

• avoid restricted carriers and sanctioned entities

• document routing decisions and procurement rationale

• monitor changes in sanctions environment continuously

11) Opportunities

Why enter Kazakhstan?

Kazakhstan offers potential strategic value as a regional hub, with major urban centres capable of supporting corporate operations and a market that may offer competitive operating costs.

Where opportunity is strongest:

• controlled operations in Astana / Almaty

• partnerships with reputable, well-vetted local firms

• sectors where regulatory exposure is manageable and not politically sensitive

How to capture opportunity safely:

• phased entry and controlled footprint

• strong compliance posture as a differentiator

• resilience planning for winter disruption and administrative delay

Market Entry Conclusion

Kazakhstan is a viable market for entry where the organisation can maintain control over movement, vendors, and compliance exposure. The highest risk is not routine violence, but administrative unpredictability, integrity risk, and episodic unrest. Entry should be structured to remain agile, defensible, and resilient, particularly through winter seasons and in any sector requiring extensive licensing.